https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2026.46.3.0269
임광균(Lim, Kwang-kyun);윤경철(Yun, Gyeong-Cheol)
This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the structural changes in railway SOC investment and the relationship between private railway investment and key market indicators in Korea over the period 2008?2024. Based on a comparative analysis using OECD data, the level of railway SOC investment in Korea was found to be approximately 0.34 % of GDP on average over the past five years, which is comparable to that of major advanced countries such as France and Italy. To identify the determinants of variations in private railway investment, regression analysis was conducted using macroeconomic indicators (GDP growth rate, Composite Business Cycle Index), financial market indicators (base interest rate, government bond yields), and construction-related indicators (construction cost index, construction business survey index). The results indicate that private railway investment is influenced more significantly by financial and cost-related factors?such as the base interest rate, long-term government bond yields, and construction costs?than by short-term economic fluctuations such as GDP growth. In particular, the base interest rate was found to have a negative effect on investment, while government bond yields and construction costs were positively associated with the scale of investment. In addition, a lagged correlation analysis was conducted to account for the time delay inherent in the implementation of private railway projects. The results show that the relationship between construction costs and investment becomes stronger with a lag of one to two years, suggesting that increases in construction costs are gradually reflected in total project costs and investment during the project execution process. In contrast, interest rates and bond yields exhibited relatively stronger correlations in the contemporaneous or short-term lag periods. These findings imply that private railway investment is shaped not by short-term economic conditions but by medium- to long-term financial environments, cost structures, and time lags in project implementation. Accordingly, future policies on private railway investment should move beyond simple expansion strategies and instead focus on mitigating interest rate risks, addressing rising construction costs, and establishing an appropriate balance between public and private investment from a structural perspective.